Cases Down. Good News?

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Cases Down. Good News?

By: Srijan Agarwal and Abhiram Gadde 

Introduction

We all have experienced 10+ months of quarantine because of the wide spreading COVID-19 disease. Each day in the news, we would hear high numbers of COVID-19 cases that were reported that day. Unfortunately, on January 8th, 2021, the U.S. received a total of 308,309 NEW COVID-19 cases (Worldometers). This number was the highest since ten months of the dangerous and deadly COVID-19 pandemic. But, there is some news that gives us hope. Since January 9th, 2021 till date, the daily number of cases have lowered to 121,627 (data of February 4th, 2021) (Worldometers). Now, the vaccination process started around the beginning of December. As a result, we can infer that since people started getting vaccinated, the spread started to decrease. This amount is nearly 1/3rd of the data received on January 8th, 2021. Now, the point is, should we be complacent and careless in following the norms of COVID? 


States are easing rules and regulations on COVID-19

According to CNN Health, Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts announced on Thursday, February 4th, 2021, that businesses in the state are allowed to increase their operating capacity of 25% to 40% starting from Monday, February 7th, 2021. Similar decisions were made by the Secretary of Commerce Stefan Pryor of Rhode Island. Pryor announced that starting Friday, February 5th, 2021, restaurants are allowed to have 50% capacity since the surge in COVID-19 cases has decreased. New Jersey made its place in this list by “announcing it will ease indoor gathering limits and lift the 10 p.m. curfew for restaurants, citing decreasing Covid-19 spreading rates and hospitalization rates. Indoor gathering capacity limits, including for indoor dining, will be raised to 35% from 25%.” This huge decision was made on Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021. In addition, Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York announced that if the positivity rate of the virus continued to decline, -- as of Jan. 29 the rate was at 4.6%, the lowest since Nov. 28 -- indoor dining could resume with 25% capacity on Sunday, February 14th, 2021. However, is the daily death rate of the U.S. also declining? (CNN Health)


COVID cases are declining, but is the economy recovering?

According to Bloomberg, the economy is starting to recover and good news is coming in. States easing regulations, restaurants allowing 50% capacity, Americans enjoying the $900 billion stimulus package are some signs that show improvement. And, there is a chance that there will be no more stimulus paychecks distributed. But, we cannot fully ascertain that the economy is recovered. Some states are still receiving many requests for unemployment benefits. OpenTable U.S. Seated Diners, YoY (year over year) % Change has decreased to -58.6 (as of January 29th, 2021) (Bloomberg). However, there are also risks that sectors most adversely continue to suffer if the new variants of the Coronavirus start to spread around aggressively. 


Conclusion

The daily COVID-19 case decline will result in good news, but things can still go wrong. States easing regulations may result in a sudden increase because of the high amounts of people allowed. New York, a former COVID-19 hotspot, is allowing restaurants to function at 25% capacity which might not be such a good decision. Results can take very sharp turns sometimes and they can be dangerous.

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